Monday, July 26, 2010
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Currencies: GBP significantly outperformed, followed by the EUR, on stronger data out of Germany and the UK.
EUR/USD. Still no break above 1.30
EUR/USD (1.2934) is up overnight, frustrating EUR bears. The reason for the strength was a combination of better than expected economic IFO report out of Germany, some easing of concerns regarding the bank stress tests, calls for tightening by the ECB, and a dovish view by the Fed’s Bernanke. This all said, EUR/USD simply cannot break 1.30. Perhaps better-than-expected stress tests will allow for a breach.
Trend: Daily lower; Weekly higher.
Overbought/Oversold (stochastics): Daily overbought; Weekly oversold.
Support / Resistance Levels: Support for EUR/USD lies at 1.25 (psychological), 1.2152 (Jun 29 low), 1.1877 (Jun7 low), 1.1827 (Mar’06 low), and 1.1640 (Nov’05 low). Resistance lies at 1.3029 (Jul20 high), 1.3094 (May10 high), 1.3692 (Apr12 high), 1.3818 (Mar17 high), 1.4026 (Feb3 high), 1.4194 (Jan25 high), 1.4579 (Jan13 high) and 1.4626 (Nov low).
* The CFTC, EUR, non-commercial, net position (-28K) moderated sharply, in keeping with the EUR/USD rally through last Tuesday.
The risk reversal (3m, 25delta) rose along with the rally in spot. The reversal is still heavily skewed for EUR downside, but it lies in the middle of its six month range – suggesting two way price action.
Implied Vol (3m) fell overnight. It remains in the middle-third of its six-month range – plenty of two-way risk here.
Cross-asset valuation: The significant correlations that EUR/USD has during the past 60 days are the 10yr yield spread (positive), the US10yr yield (positive) and the SPX (positive).